#10: Tulsa Golden Hurricane

TULSA GOLDEN HURRICANE
Last season: 9-20 (5-13 WAC, 9th)
Starters lost/returning: 2/3
Head coach: Doug Wojcik (first year)
Last conference championship: 2002 (WAC)
Last NCAA Tournament appearance: 2003
Location: Tulsa, OK
Home court: Reynolds Center (8,355)

For a long time, Tulsa was one of the most respected mid-majors, first in the Missouri Valley and later in the WAC. In 25 seasons, the Golden Hurricane reached the postseason 18 times. From 1994-2003, Tulsa reached the NCAA Tournament eight times and won an NIT championship in 2001.

The problem? Coaches kept leaving. Sure, there was continued success, but in the past 25 years, Nolan Richardson, Tubby Smith, and Bill Self all coached at Tulsa. While all three had success at the school, none stuck around long enough to turn Tulsa into a national power. Even Steve Robinson and Buzz Peterson, who flopped at Florida State and Tennessee, respectively, had brief stays at Tulsa that vaulted them into those jobs. So after Peterson left, Tulsa hired John Phillips, who was expected to have continued success and remain at the school.

Then, in 2003-04, the bottom fell out, and 2004-05 got off to a bad start before Phillips resigned. So Tulsa returned to its previous coaching selection method that had worked so well in the past, going with Doug Wojcik, an assistant to Tom Izzo at Michigan State. Based on his pedigree, Wojcik will probably not last long at Tulsa before heading to a bigger job, assuming he turns the program around.

Tulsa has some talent, but will it be enough to succeed immediately in Conference USA? There's athleticism, but there aren't a lot of bangers. There's some height, but will Tulsa have enough strength inside to compete in Conference USA? Probably not. Forward Anthony Price, a 6'8", 225-pound senior, is a good start, but he only averaged 4.7 rebounds per game last season as a starter. 6'9", 225-pound freshman Sam Mitchell has potential, but probably shouldn't be thrown into the fire right away. JC transfer Darold Crow is 6'7" and 210 pounds, and he's more of a scorer. 6'10", 205-pound junior Charles Ramsdell has done little to this point.

In the backcourt, 6'2" senior Chris Wallace is a good shooter and should start at the two. 6'0" sophomore Brett McDade was thrust into the fire as a freshman last season and did all right, averaging 9.6 points and 2.6 assists per game. Roderick Earls, another juco transfer, could start as well.

Wojcik signed a nice recruiting class considering the late start. Freshmen Antonio Hanson, Sean Coleman, Ashton Hall, Ray Reese, Bishop Wheatley, and Sam Mitchell, though they may not contribute immediately, point to a good future for the Hurricane. With a depleted Conference USA, it may not be long before Tulsa finds itself in the upper division.

It won't happen this year, however. While there are athletes here, there isn't enough strength to compete with Conference USA's best. The early schedule is soft enough for Tulsa to win a few games and build some confidence, but even in a weakened C-USA there isn't enough here to expect more than a ninth-place finish.

Projected 2005-06 record: 13-14
Projected conference record: 4-10

(NOTE: The rankings and projected conference record may not necessarily correspond. My rankings are based on who will be the best teams, but because the schedules are unbalanced, the records may not reflect this.)

#11: East Carolina Pirates

EAST CAROLINA PIRATES
Last season: 9-19 (4-12 C-USA, T12th)
Starters lost/returning: 2/3
Head coach: Ricky Stokes (First year at East Carolina; 46-69 overall, 4 years)
Last conference championship: None
Last NCAA Tournament appearance: 1993
Location: Greenville, NC
Home court: Minges Coliseum (8,000)

East Carolina was looking forward to 2005-06. With Louisville, Cincinnati, and Charlotte gone from Conference USA, the conference would be much weaker than it had been before. The Pirates went 9-19 in 2004-05, but lost nine games by six points or fewer. However, that record wasn't good enough for coach Bill Herrion to keep his job.

In steps Ricky Stokes, formerly the head coach at Virginia Tech, and a former player for East Carolina AD Terry Holland at Virginia. Stokes went 46-69 in four seasons at Virginia Tech before getting the axe there. Granted, during his tenure the Hokies moved from the Atlantic 10 to the much tougher Big East, but the team didn't show a lot of progress during those years.

The cupboard isn't completely bare at East Carolina, but it's looking a lot emptier with the departures of Moussa Badiane and Mike Cook. The loss of Badiane, who holds Conference USA's record for career blocked shots, was expected. The loss of Cook, a 6'4" guard who led the team averaging 15.0 ppg, was not; he transferred to Pittsburgh. With Cook, an all-conference candidate, East Carolina would have challenged for an upper-division finish. Without him, they'll be fighting Marshall and Tulsa to stay out of Conference USA's cellar.

The team does have a very good returnee in 6'8", 195-pound senior forward Corey Rouse. Rouse averaged a double-double last season (10.6 ppg, 10.2 rpg), and that latter number was achieved with the 6'10" Badiane snaring quite a few boards himself. Rouse grabbed 21 boards on three separate occasions in 2004-05, and despite his lean build, is quite a load to handle inside. The rest of the frontcourt is thin, however. 6'9" JC transfer Tyronne Beale will likely start on the block. 6'7", 235-pound senior Mike Castro can spell Rouse for a few minutes every game. 6'7" La Salle transfer David Bell will also provide depth and could start. 6'9" freshman Quinton Goods will come off the bench. 6'10" freshman center Justin Ramsey was also expected to provide depth but was a Prop 48 casualty. Without another force inside, it may be difficult for Rouse to put up the kind of numbers he did a year ago.

With Cook gone, there's no proven scoring threat in the backcourt. 6'4" sophomore Tom Hammonds averaged 8.0 ppg as a freshman last year and will start. 5'10" junior point guard Japhet McNeil averaged 6.3 ppg and 4.4 apg last season, but he is a poor shooter. Help will come from 6'1" juco point guard Courtney Captain and 6'4" freshman Sam Hinnant, who can shoot the three well. Either could start for the Pirates. 6'3" Wake Forest transfer Jeremy Ingram and 5'10" sophomore Josh King will provide depth.

Stokes has been a head coach for four years but has yet to really prove himself either as a coach or as a recruiter. Had Cook returned, there would be reason to think that East Carolina could make a big jump in the newly-configured Conference USA. Without him, the Pirates are likely relegated to another lower-division finish. However, the teams at the bottom of Conference USA are generally weak or unproven, and the Pirates could conceivably finish as high as sixth even with the current roster. Eleventh is a better bet, however. There are a few tough tests in December for this team, but more likely it will be January before we get a real sense of how good this team is.

Projected 2005-06 record: 13-14
Projected conference record: 4-10

Season Preview: #12: Marshall Thundering Herd

MARSHALL THUNDERING HERD
Last season: 6-22 (3-15, 6th, MAC East)
Starters lost/returning: 3/2
Head coach: Ron Jirsa (18-39, 2 years at Marshall; 53-69 overall, 4 years)
Last conference championship: 1995 (Southern)
Last NCAA Tournament appearance: 1987
Location: Huntington, WV
Home court: Cam Henderson Center (9,048)

Last season, Marshall struggled in its final year in the MAC, and this year should be no different as the Thundering Herd makes the jump from the MAC to Conference USA. Granted, this year's Conference USA isn't that big of a step up from the MAC, but Marshall will still likely struggle against improved competition.

What's more, seven players, including three starters, are gone from last year's team that set a school record for futility with 22 losses. 6'9", 250-pound senior Mark Patton has all-conference potential after averaging 11.0 points and 8.1 rebounds per game last season. Another starter, 6'4" junior guard Tre Whitted, is back, as well as sophomore Joe Miles, who finished third on the team averaging 9.6 points per game. 6'7" senior LaVar Carter is the only other returnee of significance. 6'10" redshirt freshman Jesse Oglesby is also around.

The key to this year's team will be how well their new players, primarily JC transfers, adjust. Guard Chris Ross and swingman Travis Aikens are expected to start, while Chris Williams and Jean Francois Bro-Grebe will provide depth. 6'5" Markel Humphrey and 6'7" Mason Wooldridge, both freshmen, will provide depth.

Jirsa enters his third season at Marshall squarely on the hot seat, and this season really won't be much of an improvement. The talent level here probably isn't good enough to compete even in the newly-configured Conference USA. While Marshall will win a few games, it wouldn't be a surprise to see this Herd team break the school record for losses that was set in 2004-05.

Projected 2005-06 record: 8-19
Conference record: 2-12